Don’t believe anyone who claims they can predict future scrap metal prices with accuracy. The markets for scrap metals are constantly shifting since they’re closely tied to global events, so even industry analysts can’t always anticipate how scrap prices will change over time. In 2019, no one could have predicted that the pandemic would send scrap copper prices plummeting in 2020 and then soaring to record highs in 2022. Supply and demand largely determines current scrap metal prices, and factors such as inflation, mine capacity and new technology will impact supply chains and the demand for scrap metal in the coming years.
Still, there are a number of long term industry projections trying to predict the future price of metals including steel, copper, aluminum and others. These projections are typically based on analysts’ calculations and forecasts, historical demand, anticipated supply constraints, capacity issues, etc. What they are unable to predict are things like the impact of an outbreak of war, energy prices, potential recessions that would impact demand, and many other factors.
With all that in mind, here’s a look at where current scrap metal prices are in 2023—and where they might go in 2024.
Steel Scrap Prices
2023: Globally, steel scrap prices have fluctuated from lows of around $350/ton at the beginning of the year to highs of nearly $550/ton in spring, leveling out to around $450/ton this autumn. That’s a significant drop from 2022 highs above $700/ton. In the U.S. specifically, current scrap metal prices for steel range from under 10 cents/lb to around 30 cents/lb, depending on grade.
2024: Factors including an anticipated slowdown in construction could have an impact on the demand for steel, potentially leading to slightly lower prices for scrap steel. The World Steel Association recently released a report predicting that in the U.S., steel demand will decline by 1.1% overall in 2023 but grow by 1.6% in 2024. And fortunately the United Auto Workers strike has been resolved, after concerns it would drag on and affect steel prices into 2024.
Aluminum scrap prices
2023: Aluminum scrap prices spiked in 2022 but fell in 2023, with average global prices between $2200 and $2500/ton. Consumers have seen average prices around 25 to 50 cents/lb for common grades of aluminum in 2023.
2024: Due to factors including a global low supply of aluminum, demand for aluminum scrap could continue to rise into 2024, slightly raising the prices consumers can expect to see for their aluminum scrap.
Copper scrap prices
2023: So far this year, consumers selling copper scrap have been seeing prices above $3/lb for the highest quality copper (such as bare bright wire), with prices between $2 and $3/lb for other high-quality copper grades.
2024: After a few years of copper shortfalls, with demand outpacing supply, analysts anticipate a copper surplus in 2024. It’s possible that copper scrap prices could be depressed in 2024 if the supply of new copper exceeds demand, so consumers might see copper scrap prices rise only slightly in 2024 over what we’ve seen in 2023.
Looking at 2024 and beyond, there is much talk in the metal industry about future lack of copper supply. That’s due to several factors, including the long-term difficulty of bringing new mine capacity online, increased delays and costs due to permitting, regulations, environmental restrictions, red tape, etc. Various projections suggest that the increased “electrification” of the US and other countries—from electric vehicles, wind and solar power, etc.—will only create more demand for copper.
Relatedly, the Department of Energy recently designated copper as a “critical material” in recognition of the fact that it’s an essential component for energy technologies, and has a high risk of supply chain disruption. One thing is for certain: We are in a changing global environment, and the future remains uncertain.
Contact Miller Recycling with Questions About Current Scrap Metal Prices
While I can’t tell you exactly what your scrap metal is going to earn you in 2024, I’m happy to answer any questions about current scrap metal prices and how you can get the best return for your scrap with Miller Recycling. Contact me today!